The Istanbul Canal is a project to connect the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara. Through this, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, both important in the international military and commercial balance, will be connected. It would cut off Istanbul's European edge and make it an island between Asia and Europe.
The canal will be 45 km (28 mi) long, 360 m (1,180 ft) at the surface, 275 m (902 ft) wide at the bottom, and 20.75 m (68.10 ft) deep. A maximum of 350 metres long, 49 metres wide, 17 metres deep and 58 metres high, ships can pass through the canal.
The opening of the canal will reduce shipping pressure in the Bosphorus Strait. 160 ships can pass through this canal every day, equal to the Bosphorus. Because of the Treaty of Montreux, no tax could be levied on shipping in the Bosphorus. But if this canal is built, it will collect $8 billion a year in taxes.
At least 7 times in history, there have been proposals to dig the Istanbul Canal. The first proposal was made by Sultan Sulaiman (who reigned from 1520–1566). The plan was given by its architect, Mimar Sinan. But later, the project was cancelled for unknown reasons.
For the second time in 1591, Sultan Murad-III issued a royal order to dig the canal, and the project began; but for unknown reasons, it stopped again. Rebuilding of the canal was started for the 3rd time in 1654 during the reign of Sultan Mohammad IV and was again abandoned.
Sultan Mustafa III (reigned 1757–1774) made two attempts, which failed economically. Later, during the reign of Sultan Mahmud II (1808–1839), a royal council was formed to review the project. The council presented a report in favour of excavation in 1813. But that was cancelled.
Finally, in 1985 and 1990, Yaksel Onem, an adviser to the Ministry of Energy, suggested the construction of an alternative waterway to the Bosphorus. In 1991, Nusret Avicii, head of the Environmental Commission of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, proposed and planned the construction of a 23-kilometer canal.
The Erdogan government finalised the Istanbul Canal route on January 15, 2018 from among five alternative routes. The project was inaugurated on June 26, 2021. The canal is planned to be opened in 2023—the centennial of the founding of the state. The project cost is estimated at 75 billion lira (13 billion US dollars).
If the project is implemented, there is a serious threat of environmental damage. The water level of the Black Sea is 50 cm higher than that of the Sea of Marmara, and the water is less saline. As a result, water will always flow south through the canal. If so, the salinity of 25 cm of the surface water of the Sea of Marmara will decrease and the ecosystem will be damaged.
The project will destroy agricultural crops and forests, salinate groundwater, and increase flood rates. If the salinity of the Sea of Marmara increases, the air in Istanbul will smell of hydrogen sulfide. Due to the canal, one fifth of Istanbul's drinking water source—Lake Durusu—will disappear.
Apprehension
A few days ago, 10 retired naval admirals were arrested for criticising the project. Earlier, 100 retired senior naval officers signed an open letter, saying the proposed canal would invalidate the Montreux Convention and undermine Turkish security.
Whatever is written on paper or said in speech, the real reason for building this canal is to bypass the Montreux Convention. The treaty limited the number and load of warships in the Black Sea via the Bosphorus. Turkey (and NATO) cannot transport energy through the Bosphorus.
In 2014, Russia seized a large area of Crimea from Ukraine. As Russia is deploying its forces in Crimea to counter NATO [as America did in Alaska against Russia], America now wants a safe route to the Black Sea. And that is going to be the Istanbul Canal.
Russia will not accept this. The old Putin will do anything to stop this project. China, which has recently been cornered on the Uyghur issue, will be on its side. Meanwhile, Biden's country is withdrawing itself from the rest of the world to restore the balance of power in the Black Sea region. In Syria, all sides have weighed each other's strength.
So what's next? It is fairly certain that Erdogan will leave this "canal cut and crocodile" project implemented. Then, when crocodiles (i.e., weapons) start to go through the canal, crazy Russia will occupy the city of Istanbul along with the Bosphorus Strait by virtue of the Montreux Convention.
The year is 2024.
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